Falling Sydney & Melbourne home prices – is this the crash?

Published: April 9, 2018

Key points Property prices in Sydney and Melbourne likely have more downside, but a crash is unlikely in the absence of much higher mortgage rates, much higher supply and a long continuation of recent high construction activity. Other cities will perform better. Property investors should remain wary of Sydney and Melbourne and focus on laggard […]

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Share market volatility – Trump and trade war risks

Published: March 27, 2018

Key points Worries about the Fed, trade wars (the risk of which has been significantly exaggerated) and President Trump generally have increased the risk around the global outlook but are unlikely to drive a major bear market. The key issue is whether the US is about to enter a recession and our assessment remains that […]

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The Australian economy – five reasons growth will continue

Published: March 8, 2018

Key points The Australian economy grew 2.4% through 2017, good but well below potential given high population growth. There is good reason to expect growth to continue and pick up a bit: the drag from falling mining investment is nearly over, non-mining investment is turning up, public investment is strong, trade should add to growth […]

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Australian’s love affair with debt – how big is the risk?

Published: February 15, 2018

Key points Household debt levels in Australia are high compared to other countries and still rising. The rise is not as bad as it looks because its been matched by rising wealth and debt servicing problems are low. However, this could change as interest rates rise and if home prices fall sharply. The trigger for […]

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The pullback in shares – seven reasons not to be too concerned

Published: February 14, 2018

Key points The current pullback in shares has been triggered by worries around US inflation, the Fed and rising bond yields but made worse by an unwinding of bets that volatility would continue to fall. We may have seen the worst, but it’s too early to say for sure. However, our view remains that it’s […]

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Correction time for shares?

Published: February 6, 2018

Key points The US share market is long overdue a decent correction. This now appears to be unfolding and may have further to go as higher inflation, a slightly more aggressive Fed and higher bond yields are factored in. This will impact most share markets including Australian shares. However, in the absence of an aggressive […]

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2018 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook

Published: January 25, 2018

Key points 2018 is likely to remain good for diversified investors. The investment cycle still favours growth assets over cash and bonds. But expect more volatile and constrained returns as US inflation starts to turn up. Watch US inflation, bond yields, President Trump, the Italian election, China, the Sydney and Melbourne property markets and global […]

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